BlockHorizon On-Chain Composite โ Cycle Context
The slow on-chain read next to the fast sentiment read above. Zones and markers are context, not signals โ confirm with price structure and your own risk rules. Data as of Oct 20.
Current reading
Last 7/30 cross: Jul 16, 2026 โ 7d crossed above 30d (composite 22)
Last zone entry/exit: Aug 19, 2026 โ left accumulation zone (composite 25)
Last FNG confluence: Jun 06, 2026 โ long-context confluence (zone + FNG Extreme Fear) (composite 22)
Legend
- Composite โ BlockHorizon Cycle Index (0โ100), an aggregate of key on-chain cycle indicators (MVRV, NUPL, realized-price and holder-supply metrics). Low = undervalued / capitulated holders, high = overheated.
- 7d average and 30d average โ short vs medium trend of the composite. 7d above 30d = on-chain conditions improving.
- BTC price (right axis, log scale on this chart) and 200-week MA โ the classic long-term cycle floor; reclaiming it historically marked the end of the worst of a bear market.
- Long-opportunity zone (composite โค P20 = 22; darker โค P10 = 10) and short / de-risk zone (โฅ P80 = 55; darker โฅ P90 = 71). Historically better entries for longs came from the low zone and better places to take profit / hedge from the high zone. Context, not signals.
- โฒ / โผ โ 7d average crossed above / below the 30d average (1-point dead-band, so flat stretches don't flicker).
- โ filled / โ hollow โ composite entered / left the long zone (green) or the overheated zone (red), with 1 point of hysteresis.
- โ โ FNG confluence: composite in the long zone while Fear & Greed โค 25 (Extreme Fear), or in the overheated zone while FNG โฅ 75 (Extreme Greed). Slow on-chain and fast sentiment agreeing is the strongest context this chart shows.
How the zones are derived
Zones come from the composite's own history: 774 weekly readings from Jan 2012 to Oct 2026. P10 / P20 / P80 / P90 are the 10th, 20th, 80th and 90th percentiles of that history (10 / 22 / 55 / 71), recomputed on every run, so the zones move slowly as new data arrives. Today's 32 sits at the 39th percentile. The chart uses daily composite values from Jul 08, 2026 and BlockHorizon's weekly series before that (interpolated to days, dotted divider on the chart). The 7d/30d averages are computed on that daily series. FNG is alternative.me's daily index; BTC is the daily close (weekly before the FNG tracker's history).
| Date | Recent event | Composite | FNG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | left accumulation zone | 25 | 46 |
| 2026-07-16 | 7d crossed above 30d | 22 | 25 |
| 2026-06-06 | long-context confluence (zone + FNG Extreme Fear) | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-06-06 | entered accumulation zone | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-21 | 7d crossed below 30d | 29 | 29 |
| 2026-03-15 | 7d crossed above 30d | 28 | 15 |
| 2025-10-15 | 7d crossed below 30d | 48 | 34 |
| 2025-09-19 | 7d crossed above 30d | 51 | 53 |
Source: BlockHorizon (public dashboard) ยท full BlockHorizon dashboard โ ยท #NFA โ not investment advice.